The EUR/USD pair has failed to build on Friday’s modest recovery gains early Monday and started to push lower toward 1.0100. In the absence of high-tier macroeconomic data releases, the market mood is likely to impact the pair’s action.
Renewed concerns over China reinstating coronavirus-related lockdowns weigh on market mood at the beginning of the week. Additionally, Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline shut down for a scheduled 10-day maintenance. Although this is an annual occurrence, investors are worried that Russia could see this as an opportunity to further trim its energy exports to Europe by delaying the reopening.
Reflecting the risk-averse atmosphere, the Euro Stoxx 600 Index is down nearly 1% and US stock index futures are losing between 0.6% and 0.9%. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index is up 0.65% at 107.60, reflecting the positive impact of risk aversion on the greenback’s valuation.
On the other hand, the CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are pricing in nearly a 30% probability. It was up from 13% a week ago, of the Fed hiking its policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) again in September after a 75 bps hike in July. The stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data seems to be causing investors to reassess the Fed’s rate outlook.