PlanB projects Bitcoin at $ 98K for November and reveals that it is based on 2 models, plus the S2F
PlanB explains that the S2F does not fail and that its analyzes are based on three different models after receiving strong criticism for inaccuracies.
The long-term projections of BTC that are made by big analysts like John Wick and PlanB are followed by a large number of users on their social networks. For this reason, they tend to defend their analyzes with arguments, especially when they receive constant criticism and accusations, as happened recently with one of the last Bitcoin predictions made by PlanB.
Due to the events that occurred, the cryptocurrency analyst, PlanB, was forced to clarify and define to its community of followers the models or strategies it uses to measure the trend that Bitcoin is following. However, his answers have not been convincing to many; above all, because the market was in the red a few days ago.
Even so, he remains optimistic and defends his projection since it is based on three models; where one of them is the stock-to-flow, a floor model (the analyst’s own), and a chain model.
PlanB Projection Defends Odds of Bitcoin Hitting $ 98,000 by the end of November
The beginning of this debate was on Twitter when they made strong criticism of the analyst after a publication that was made on June 20, 2021. There, it established that Bitcoin would reach the following prices: Aug 47K, Sep 43K, Oct 63K, Nov 98K, Dec 135K; According to critics, this method or models used by PlanB were not very precise.
In its new publication, made on November 17, it clarifies that, despite using stock-to-flow as the basis of its projection, it also uses two more models to obtain results. And, despite the fact that the exact figure was not reached in October due to a small rounding error, it indicates that it remains firm in its November analysis.
To clarify: 98K Nov prediction is NOT based on the S2F model but on my floor model.
As I said before (in tweets and latest podcasts), I use 3 models:
2) Floor model
3) On-chain model
If for example, 98K Nov floor model prediction fails, that does NOT mean S2F or on-chain fails. https://t.co/tj6SSwSzKR
– PlanB (@ 100trillionUSD) November 17, 2021
They accuse the analyst of making downward adjustments to their projections when they are not met.
In addition, critics of PlanB comment that PlanB makes downward adjustments to its Bitcoin analyzes when these are not met. This without forgetting that they also suggest that reaching $ 98K is quite unrealistic. Especially when the price of BTC fell more than 20% a few days ago, returning to October prices.
This would mean that it would have to rise at least 70% to reach the margin established by the analyst. Given the allegations, he also explains:
If, for example, the predictions of the November minimum model of $ 98,000 fail, that does not mean that the stock-to-flow fails. S2F fails if the average price of BTC during this halving cycle is not $ 100K. So it is difficult to establish an “exact level” …