Bitcoin (BTC) has been relatively quiet over the last week consolidating around $35,000, with altcoins leading to crypto market rally over the weekend.
Last week, the US reported its jobs data with a cooler-than-expected employment output for the month of October 2023. As a result, analysts have turned bullish that the Fed would pivot sooner than expected going into 2024
Some analysts have already started putting higher odds at the first-rate cuts coming as soon as March 2024. If so this would mean a big rally coming in risk-ON assets such as equities and crypto. Interestingly, the next Bitcoin halving also coincides with the same time around April 2024, which could add more fuel to the Bitcoin price rally.
The likelihood of the central bank reducing the headline interest rate by 25 basis points below the current levels at the March meeting increased to 25.9% on Friday, up from 12.9% on Thursday, as per the CME FedWatch Tool.
Fed-fund futures indicate a 66.5% probability that the Fed will maintain interest rates unchanged throughout the March meeting.
The chances of interest rates remaining at their current levels are at 95.4% for the December meeting and 89.4% for the January meetings. There is a zero probability of a rate cut at either meeting, while there is a 10.3% likelihood of a rate hike in January.
While Bitcoin has been consolidating for a while at $35,000, it could be the calm before the storm for the next Bitcoin price mega rally. Popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez reported that in a significant milestone, over 700,000 new BTC addresses were generated in a single day. This growth in the BTC network is often considered one of the most reliable indicators for price predictions!
As Bitcoin maintains a favorable short-term momentum, CrediBull Crypto expresses optimism that the asset could continue shifting gears until it reaches the psychologically significant threshold of $40,000. In the event of this occurrence, the analyst envisions a potential journey toward a new All-Time High (ATH) may be well within grasp.
On the other hand, capital inflows into the crypto market have topped more than $10 billion over the last month hinting at strong investor confidence.